Solana (SOL) is primed for a price explosion following reports of an incoming exchange-traded fund (ETF) tracking its native asset, but approval for spot ETFs could send prices through the roof.
According to a report by crypto market maker GSR Markets, Solana is next in line to receive its raft of ETF products following the successes of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). According to GSR’s report, Solana has several positives going for it to receive the blessings of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Right out the bat, the report highlights Solana’s rising utility and market capitalization that firmly entrenched it as part of the top seven largest cryptocurrencies. The network’s decentralization and staking functionalities form the crux of GSR’s report on Solana’s chances at receiving ETF product approvals from the securities watchdog.
The report notes that a futures-based ETF may be within reach in the near future but the chances of a spot ETF tracking SOL are slim. While a futures Solana ETF is expected to bump asset prices by a few notches, GSR opines that a spot ETF will have profound impacts on SOL’s price by as much as nine times.
The market maker reached its hypothesis by tracking the impact of spot Bitcoin ETFs on the valuation of the largest cryptocurrency, playing it safe by unveiling three scenarios. Under a bear case, the report predicts 2% inflows into spot Solana ETFs using the value of its global investment product AUM in comparison to BTC.
A base case scenario tracked the inflow of funds to Solana’s investment products between 2021 and 2023, noting that the products attracted 5% of inflows relative to BTC.
GSR’s blue sky outlook is more optimistic and uses a 14% average annual relative inflow to predict the potential impact of spot ETFs on Solano. To arrive at a conclusion, the report adjusted relative flow estimates for each scenario to match Bitcoin’s 2.3x increase since the launch of spot BTC ETFs.
Per the report, the worst-case scenario under the bear case will see Solana climb by 1.4x in the weeks following the approval of spot ETFs. A baseline model is expected to bump the asset price by 3.4x, while the blue sky model predicts a rally of 8.9x. However, the researchers say the estimates are conservative at best.
“Moreover, there are reasons to believe the impact could be higher than these estimates, since, unlike BTC, SOL is actively used for staking and within decentralized applications and as the relationship between relative flows and relative size may not be linear,” read the report.
VanEck has since filed with the SEC for a Solana-based ETF, sending SOL’s price on a near double-digit rally. However, skeptics warn that the securities watchdog could delay issuing a response.
