Jeremy Hogan, a prominent attorney closely following the ongoing legal battle between Ripple Labs and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has predicted an 18% chance of the SEC settling its case against Ripple and the firm’s co-defendants.
Sharing his insights on Twitter regarding the possible outcomes of the SEC v. Ripple case on Sunday, Hogan first suggested that settling with the individual defendants could have expedited the case, potentially reaching an appellate court about 9-12 months faster.
He said this approach would have saved the SEC valuable time and preserved its resources while avoiding a protracted and overreaching legal battle. However, Hogan acknowledged that even with this route, the case would likely have extended deep into 2026, specifically to August 14, 2026, giving it a 39% chance of happening.
Another option Hogan considered was a complete settlement of all litigation against Ripple and the individual defendants.
“Settlement is a good option for the SEC. It gets to publish another “win” and collect a big big check from the bad guys. The Judge cleared this path for them by clarifying that her ruling only applies to the facts specific to XRP. Chance of happening: 18.987%”, wrote Hogan.
Notably, just last week, judge Analisa Torres recommended a settlement conference before the final pre-trial conference, which is slated for April 16, 2024. However, it’s worth noting that the SEC has exhibited a limited willingness to compromise up to this point.
The most crucial point Hogan emphasized was that the July Summary Judgment was the “law of the land” at the time. This meant the SEC’s case against Ripple could not have been altered or resolved until at least 2026.
Judge Torres’s Criticism of SEC’s Inconsistent Arguments
Hogan’s assessment come just days after Judge Analisa Torres denied the SEC’s request to certify an interlocutory appeal in the Ripple case. In her ruling, she openly criticized the SEC for presenting shifting and inconsistent legal theories regarding Ripple’s other distributions of XRP.
Judge Torres’s criticism aligns with previous admonishments of the SEC’s behaviour in the case. Magistrate Sarah Netburn had earlier remarked on the SEC’s selective adoption of litigation positions, noting that the agency prioritised its desired goals over strict adherence to the law.