Solana (SOL) has continued to face selling pressure since reaching an all-time high of $295 in January, extending its decline this week.
While broader market weakness, exacerbated by Bitcoin’s 11% drop in the past 24 hours, has fueled the pullback, additional factors like the recent meme coin frenzy and pump-and-dump schemes have further damaged Solana‘s reputation.
However, currently, the most pressing concern seems to be the imminent token unlock by FTX, which has raised fears of a major selloff as a large influx of SOL enters the market.
On Tuesday, crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted a notable shift among large holders, tweeting that, “135 whales holding over 10,000 SOL have sold or redistributed their holdings in the past month.”
This mass exit comes ahead of Solana’s largest-ever token unlock, set for March 1. This unlock will release 11.2 million SOL (worth nearly $2 billion), primarily from FTX’s bankruptcy estate.
Messari data shows that over 97% of Solana tokens are unlocked. In February 2025, 9 million SOL entered circulation, marking a peak ahead of March. Future unlocks in April and July are relatively minor, making the upcoming FTX unlock the key event to watch.
Analysts at XBT Research have cautioned that at $172 per SOL, the 11.2 million SOL unlock is valued at approximately $2.03 billion, representing 2.4% of the circulating supply.
“Past unlocks showed holding behavior, but selling pressure could push prices down in the short term,” they tweeted.
Furthermore, with major venture capital firms such as Galaxy Digital, Pantera Capital, and Figure holding billions in unrealized gains, speculation is mounting that they may also liquidate part of their holdings. Just recently, Market maker Wintermute withdrew $38.2 million worth of SOL from Binance, further fueling concerns about potential sell-offs ahead of the unlock.
Adding to the bearish outlook, meme coin scandals have further eroded confidence in the Solana network. The recent LIBRA token debacle, which involved allegations of insider trading and fraudulent schemes, has shaken investor trust. This uncertainty has already translated into capital outflows, with Solana’s MEME index posting a monthly decline of around -6%, according to crypto analytics firm Glassnode.
Meanwhile, Solana’s network activity has plunged, with active addresses dropping 60%, from an all-time high of 18.5 million in October to just 7.3 million today, according to Glassnode.
Despite concerns that the upcoming unlock could trigger a selloff, some traders view it as a buy-the-dip opportunity.
“SOL sentiment is the worst it has been in over a year since first reclaiming the $100 level,” analyst Miles Deutscher told his 600,000 X followers. However, he suggested a potential turnaround, stating, “After being a top performer for so long, it’s finally having its capitulation moment. I think we’re getting close now…”
At press time, SOL was trading at $141, up 0.53% over the past 24 hours.
