Cryptocurrency market pundits have forecasted bullish market movements associated with Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, but Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the BitMEX exchange, has a bearish outlook.
Hayes thinks the disparity between the crypto investors’ high expectations of the forthcoming President Trump government and reality will lead to a brutal sell-off in the cryptocurrency market.
A Gap Between High Expectations And No Quick Solutions
In his Dec. 18 “Trump Truth” blog post, Hayes noted that the market believes Trump will immediately achieve economic and political miracles.” However, there are “no politically acceptable solutions” for President-elect Trump to quickly make sweeping policy changes widely anticipated by cryptocurrency enthusiasts.
“The market will instantly wake up to the reality that Trump has at best one year to enact any policy changes on around January 20th,” Hayes wrote. “This realization will lead to a vicious sell-off in crypto and other Trump 2.0 equity trades.”
Bitcoin and the broader crypto market saw a tremendous uplift following Trump’s presidential victory in early November. BTC soared over 50% since Trump’s win to a new all-time high of $108,135 on Tuesday. While questions remain about whether Trump will fulfill his slew of pre-election promises, including making the U.S. the crypto capital of the planet, others are confident recent developments are spurring momentum.
U.S. Likely Won’t Buy Bitcoin
Trump’s impending return to the White House has raised hopes of a drastic change in crypto regulation as the ex-POTUS recently promised to “do something great with crypto,” including a strategic national Bitcoin reserve.
Although Hayes praised the BTC strategic reserve development, he doesn’t believe it will indeed materialize. In his opinion, politicians would prefer to spend newly created U.S. dollars on public goods than buy Bitcoin.
Nevertheless, he remains optimistic about BTC’s long-term trajectory, observing that talks of a Bitcoin strategic reserve have created significant buying pressure in the market. The Maelstrom CIO added:
“While I don’t believe the US government will purchase Bitcoin, it doesn’t affect my positive price outlook.”
Hayes Predicts Catastrophic Crypto Drop Ahead
The former BitMEX boss forecasted that before we enter the “crack-up-boom phase in this crypto bull market”, crypto will experience a “harrowing dump” around Trump’s coronation day on January 20. He indicated that his firm Maelstrom is planning to reduce its holdings in advance, expecting to buy at lower prices.
That being said, Hayes admits his strategy could backfire by clearing positions early while the ballistic crypto bull rally continues through Trump’s January inauguration.
“Knowing this, we are committed to admitting defeat if the bull market steamrolls through January 20th, licking our wounds and getting back on the bull,” he concluded.
